The world financial crisis has raised Asia to a new level in the global economy that brought to the reformatting of the economic processes. The indicator of this change is an increase role of Asia in world consumption of energy resources (oil and gas). Thus, in 2009 the worldwide demand for oil fell by 1.7% (the biggest drop since 1982.), and in developed countries, members of the OECD, even by 4.8%. Growth in demand was observed only in China, India and the Middle East, in the amount of 2.1%.
 Because of developing countries, the oil refinery capacity around the world has risen by 2 million barrels per day – the largest increase since 1999. China developed plants with a capacity of 820,000 barrels per day, and India-580000. Meanwhile, in developed countries the volume of petroleum processing fell by 6.4%.
Aforementioned data illustrate the changes in the global model of energy consumption, which most probably will be long-term. Changes in the regional dynamics and in the demand structure are primarily associated with the transition to the stage where saturation of the national gas markets in most developed countries (EU, North America, Japan) and the rapid growth in the proportion and value of emerging economies of Asia in global energy demand will lead to serious long-term changes in geography of the world oil industry, specifically shift of energy flows and changes in approaches in supply logistics.
Enhancement of Asia’s role can be examined through the prism of changes in energy consumption in key country of mentioned region – China. Particularly, Chinese influence on t e state and prospects of world commodity markets (especially oil) draws our attention. Presence of such influence can be seen in the volume of imports of crude oil to China during the last decade, which has gone ahead of Japan and took second place in the world after the United States.
The growing share of China in world consumption of major energy carriers far outstrips the increase of its share in world GDP. For 30 years, China's role in world energy has changed dramatically. If it accounted 3% of world oil consumption in 1980, these figures were already about 10% in natural gas consumption – from 1 to 2.6% in 2009.
By creating one of the largest economies in the world by 2020, China is planning to increase the country's GDP by 4 times, simultaneously holding a full-scale of industrialization, to align the regional differentiation, to achieve higher living standards. China, having one of the lowest amounts of oil consumption per capita in the world, constituting less than 1 bbl / person per year, will continue to play an increasingly important role in the energy market to meet domestic needs and to provide the role taken by it of the world “assembly area”.
Until 1993 China could only meet internal demand for oil and partly exported it. But since then the situation has changed. Due to the stabilization and slight decrease of domestic production of oil in the individual time intervals in terms of structural change and modernization of the economy, and its significant growth there has occurred a sharp increase in demand. Despite the potential achievements on energy efficiency, the development of new technologies in the field of alternative sources of energy, the upward trend of oil consumption, China will continue to use oil as the main source of energy in the next 15-20 years. Economists estimate that in order to maintain rapid economic growth China must increase its energy consumption every year by 12%.
High economic growth rates in China are accompanied by its relatively low energy efficiency. In recent years, the country embarked on the most efficient use of resources and energy conservation. Increasing energy efficiency will be achieved by reducing consumption and substitution of petroleum products in several industries using clean coal, petroleum coke, natural gas, the use of electric motors and increasing their efficiency, optimization of energy systems in metallurgy, petrochemical and chemical industries, enhancing the competitiveness of enterprises.
If in the next decade the minimum annual average of GDP growth in China accounts for 8% and energy consumption increases in average by 4%, then by 2020 the country’s total annual energy consumption will reach 4.5 billion tons of coal equivalent, or 3.2 billion barrels of oil – a dimension that is almost equal to the total energy consumption of the U.S., Britain, France, Germany and Italy. However, in account per capita terms, China will only reach the world average, twice lower than Japan and three times - United States.
It is expected that if the stabilization of oil production is on the level of 184-185 million tons and it starts gradually to decline by 2010, Chinese consumption of petroleum and petroleum products will be at least 456 million tons. Accordingly, net imports will exceed 270 million tons. It is expected that oil production will decline, particularly in traditional areas (Daqing, Shengli, and others), although China, in whole, will not have a sharp decline in production - by 2020 oil production will consist of about 172 million tons and in 2030 it will drop to 160-161 million tons. Consumption of oil and petroleum products will continue to grow in a phased reduction in the rate of growth per unit of GDP. By 2020. demand will exceed 627 million tons, and by 2030 will be not less than 707 million tons. Imports of petroleum and petroleum products reach 455 million tons by 2020, and in 2030 - not less than 546 million tons.
China is becoming a net importer of petroleum products. Official forecasts are based on the fact that China's reliance on foreign sources of oil in 2010 will consist 46%, and in 2020 will reach even up to 56% of the total needs of the country. In this regard, one of the main goals for the country is to improve the mechanisms for ensuring stable oil imports, in particular through the expansion of its geography.
If earlier China used to import oil mainly from the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, Iran, Oman), now the list of partners has expanded. In addition to the Gulf, giving up to 70% of total imports, China is actively developing oil markets in Africa (Angola, Sudan, Nigeria, Chad, Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Republic of the Congo, Gabon), Latin America (Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Peru) and South-East Asia (Indonesia, Vietnam), giving a total of 30%.
In addition, China has been increasing its energy imports from Russia and Central Asia. In 2010 China is expected to obtain only from Central Asia 13 billion cubic meters of gas. By the end of 2011 this figure will grow to 30 billion, and by 2013 it will exceed 40 billion cubic meters, which represents more than half of total gas consumption in China of 2008.
As a result of active credit-investment and technology policy, China has actively penetrated into the energy sector of Central Asia. Only within the framework of the SCO Beijing is planning to implement economic projects in the region for billion. China's investments to oil and gas sector of Turkmenistan amounted to about billion. The most part of these investments were attracted to the study of the largest deposits of Southern Yolotan (Turkmenistan); to exploit this deposit Beijing provided loans to Turkmenistan on the amount of billion.
In 2009, Kazakhstan received a loan of billion and gave Beijing 49% stake of Mangistaumunaigaz. After the deal, China has taken control of a third of Kazakhstan's energy resources. In addition, China will modernize the Atyrau oil refinery and build a road bitumen plant. In Uzbekistan, Chinese companies were actively involved in the construction of the Uzbek part of the pipeline Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-China (TUKC).
China was the main investor in constructing of TUKC pipeline - its expenditures are estimated at billion. Pipeline was built in less than three years. Gas on it pumped out of eastern Turkmenistan via Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan to the north-western Chinese region of Xinjiang. TUKС was launched in December of 2009. In 2013 it is planned that Turkmenistan will supply to the pipe 30 billion cubic meters of gas per year, and Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan will give 10 billion cubic meters - respectively. China has positioned itself as a main investor in pipeline construction and received the right to develop gas field in Turkmenistan. The government of China has already announced that it could fund the expansion of pipeline capacity after 2013.
Experts believe that Chinese gas pipeline project in Central Asia is part of its larger strategy to invest heavily in diversifying the sources of imported energy and other minerals needed for a rapidly growing economy. China sets an objective of a sharp acceleration in gas consumption and bringing its share in energy mix to 10% compared to 2008 which was 4%. At those times consumption of natural gas reached 77.8 billion cubic meters while domestic production of it was 77.5 billion. In fact, at present China does not need to import gas, as it can meet internal needs by domestic production. However, these large infrastructural facilities like pipelines are being built for the future and are based on forecasts of future demand. These estimates with all their diversity and differences in the figures are indicating a sharp increase in gas consumption of China.
The global financial crisis which promoted the fall in world oil prices, has given China an opportunity to replenish its strategic and corporate oil reserves that were declined in recent years. And the presence of large foreign currency reserves allows Chinese companies to strengthen their position in competition to have an access to foreign sources of oil and gas. Here, one can mention a few large loans of China given to Russian, Brazilian, Venezuelan, and Kazakhstan companies.
China not only competes with other importing countries of oil and gas, but also seeks to establish with them, primarily with the United States, some kind of interaction and cooperation to ensure stable supply and prices. Moreover, there are also been carried out joint projects on development of third countries’ resources, allowing China to borrow the advanced technological and managerial expertise of the largest foreign companies. Some of them operate on the territory of China - both in exploration and exploitation of mineral resources, and improving technology. In this context it is worthy to the joint projects with energy companies from Russia, the U.S. and France.
In addition through providing its economy with energy raw materials, China announced, as one of the most important tasks of economic strategy for the future, a significant reduction of energy consumption per unit of GDP. Such kind of decision is based on scientific and technological potential, as it should improve its national competitiveness in world markets, reduce its dependence on foreign supplies of energy and reduce pollution.
In this regard, China relies on the development of productive cooperation with the U.S., especially in efficient use of coal and development of clean energy sources. Beijing is planning to implement jointly with the U.S. cooperation projects in the field of efficient use of energy sources in industrial production. in China and in the joint exploration of sources of bio energy. This, in turn, will improve the structure of Chinese energy sources and create opportunities of mass commercial distribution of energy-saving technologies of the United States.
In general, we can conclude that the global financial crisis has accelerated the process of nomination of Asia to the leading position in the global economy. This is clearly manifested in change of the main consumers of energy. The engine of these changes will undoubtedly be the PRC. In this context, Asia has huge growth potential, which will last the next 20-30 years.

N.Jumaniyazov, Ph.D., Expert of the CPS