Taking into account the upcoming mid-term elections to the U.S. Congress of November, 2010, where all the congressmen and third of senators will be re-elected, opponents of Barack Obama from the Republicans are criticizing various aspects of all directions of domestic and foreign policies of the incumbent. By some estimates, in the upcoming elections, the Democrats could lose 15 to 30 seats in the House of Representatives and from 4 to 8 seats in the Senate.
One of those actively criticized directions foreign policy of Obama’s administration is the ongoing war in Afghanistan, in particular, the further growth of the huge cost of its maintenance.
If in 2009 for the Afghan war the U.S. spent $ 44 billion, then in 2010 it provided almost twice as much - $  84 billion. In general, for the entire period of military operations in Afghanistan since 2001 the United States has already spent about $ 350 billion. For comparison, the Iraq campaign has taken more than $ 700 billion.  In whole, two wars have already cost U.S. taxpayers more than $ 1 trillion, which instead could be implemented for health care reform.
Moreover, the 2011 proposal of the Ministry of Defense for Afghanistan due to the increase of the American group is nearly $ 100 billion, whereas, cost of the maintenance of a single American soldier in Afghanistan is approximately one million dollars a year. Total U.S. military spending in 2011 is provided for the amount of $ 733 billion, which is almost 6% more than in fiscal year of 2010 ($ 693 billion). This is an absolute record of all times.
In the past decade, U.S. military spending grew at about twice; this reflects the desire to consolidate the role of the United States as the sole superpower in a unipolar world. The U.S. share in global military spending exceeded 50%.
In this case, it should be noted that U.S. military spending is a major item in the federal budget, which in recent years has a huge deficit. Consequently, if in 2009 the deficit amounted to $ 1.4 trillion, in 2010 this figure will reach a new historical maximum - $ 1.5 trillion. According to some estimates, total U.S. government debt is estimated at $ 60 trillion.
Excessive growth of the U.S. federal budget deficit is the result of Bush Jr. Administration policy, which went on to an unprecedented tax cuts, reducing the revenue base of the budget during the war for the first time in history. In this case, for seven years of his presidency, Bush has significantly increased U.S. military budget. According to the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Analysis, in 2008 Pentagon costs were 30% higher than in 2000.
As a result, the current White House administration, having inherited a large public debt, coupled with the financial crisis, was in a difficult position. Obama outlined the problem of Afghanistan top priority of his foreign policy and announced an increase in the number of U.S. troops, which means a further increase in military spending. These measures, in turn, require a radical rise in taxes, or continue to accumulate national debt mainly from external borrowing from China, Japan and Russia. The first option carries certain risks, since it can cause mass discontent among the population, which will undoubtedly affect Barack Obama’s rating. Therefore, the current president prefers to adhere to the second option, although, external borrowing cannot continue forever.
According to available data, in 2011 the state budget deficit, largely due to its military component, will be 8.3% of GDP. In this regard, Obama is attempting to reduce the cost of defense industry, in particular, on the development and introduction of modern weapons. Thus, it is proposed to terminate the program creation of a new cruiser CG [X], command and control LCC-R spacecraft, the reconnaissance aircraft for the Navy EP (X), the satellite program 3GIRS. But even here, the Republicans criticized the administration of the White House for unilateral disarmament, accusing Obama of pacifism, as the Republican Party traditionally has been supporting the big business military-industrial complex of the United States.
Thus, - at best case scenario - if Barack Obama begins withdrawing troops in 2011, the current problem with the military budget will just postpone for a few years the plans to deploy weapons of 5-th generation in the U.S. In the worst scenario, if the Pentagon continues its active operations in Afghanistan for a few years, Barack Obama will have to either drastically raise taxes and cut spending, or continue to build the state budget deficit through increased borrowing, thus, lead the country to even greater economic hardship. It is obvious that in both cases the result will be the same - increasing complexity for the presidency of Barack Obama.
In this regard, in a backlash of the American public against the background of the current difficulties in the U.S. economy, Barack Obama is likely to try in every possible way to successfully carry out the active phase of military action in Afghanistan during 2010-2011 with subsequent transfer of responsibility for internal security to local forces, which will give the opportunity to begin a partial withdrawal of troops from that country.

Ashraf Khodjaev, Ph.D.
Expert of the Center for Political Studies