In recent years, against the background of strengthening the Taliban, special attention is tied down on 20 August this year Elections for the presidency. Despite the fact that the Taliban movement called upon the population of the country under pain of death to boycott the elections, they were held as fact.
According to the results published by the Central Election Commission of Afghanistan, the acting president, Hamid Karzai gained 3,930,000 votes (55%), and its main rival, former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah – 1,571,000 votes (28%). According to the Election Commission of the country, in the elections, a total of 5,918,000 took part of the 15 million voters registered. On the election day there were opened 95% of all the polling stations. The turnout was a record low especially in the southern regions of the country.
However, despite these published data, the situation around the election is still very difficult and its severity does not concede the election period. Oil on the flames of recrimination of contenders in various violations also pours the evaluation of various foreign organizations and media. Thus, according to representatives of the EU, about 1.5 million votes cast during the elections, can be classified as "doubtful". And the greatest part of them accounted for Karzai -1.1 million votes. Then comes A. Abdullah with 0.3 million, and Bashardost – 92,000 votes.
It should be recognized that the reaction of leaders of the United States and NATO to the elections in Afghanistan was quite restrained. President Barack Obama said that the elections in Afghanistan were successful, despite attempts by the Taliban to prevent the course of voting. NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen called the election "success of security" and "evidence of the determination of Afghans to build a democracy."
UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon noted the desire of the citizens of Afghanistan to stability and development, and highlighted the efforts of the Central Election Commission and other Afghan institutions in organizing the vote in difficult conditions.
The complicated situation around the elections was stipulated in large part by political and personal tensions that exist between the rival leaders regional and political, economic ethnic forces behind them. Almost all the candidates have made focus on a criticism of the Karzai government, as a result of which the latter was in a rather difficult situation and was forced to maneuver between the leading factions and exploit the potential of the regional leaders, who at one time they were driven from power.
Bet on ousted from power of ethnic leaders was largely forced move, a reaction to the actions of his chief rival - A. Abdullah, who has been trying to establish itself as to the Pashtun and non-Pashtun electorate. Abdullah hoped to do so through the use of, primarily, the fact of his origin, as associated with the Pashtun south, and the north Darius.
Candidate for president of Afghanistan, Abdullah Abdullah - former Foreign Minister of Afghanistan was born in Kabul in 1960. His father - a native of Kandahar, was a senator in the Parliament at the time of Zahir Shah, his mother - a native of the Panjshir. Abdullah graduated from Kabul Medical Institute, worked for some time ophthalmologists in the Kabul hospital, Nur. Later he joined the Panjshir front of the Mujahideen under the leadership of Ahmad Shah Massoud. In the event of his election victory promised to revise the basic parameters of the administration of Hamid Karzai's economic policy. He intends to devote greater attention to agriculture. Measures undertaken in recent years to attract foreign investment, in his view, are insufficient. Abdullah is also for strict government regulation of imports to support domestic producers.
According to the ex-Foreign Minister, the implementation of his economic program would gradually lift the country from dependence on foreign financial assistance.
The second bid of Abdullah was rapprochement with the influential personalities of the current government and regional leaders. It is in this segment there took place opaque fierce fight between him and Karzai. One of the key allies of Dr. Abdullah became the governor of Balkh province Atta Mohammad Noor. He actually ran the election campaign of Abdullah in northern Afghanistan, which gave the ex-Minister for Foreign Affairs of the highest percentage of votes.
In turn, Karzai in the north made a bid for General Rashid Dostum. "Dostum theme" led to the mobilization in favor of the incumbent President of the Uzbek electorate, at least in the five northern provinces of Afghanistan. Dostum is an old enemy of Atta Noor. Therefore, the return of the leader of NIMA to the north of Afghanistan from the honorable exile to Turkey was seen by experts as an attempt to disrupt the electoral structure created by Atta Noor in June-July 2009 in the interest of Dr. Abdullah.
An important tool for opaque strategies Karzai was a former associate of the leader of the Northern Alliance, Ahmad Shah Masood - Marshal Qasim Fahim. He allowed winning over part of Dari electorate in the north of the country in favor of the president. Fahim took a tough stance against Abdullah and opposes reconciliation with him through the provision of ministerial seats in the future government of his supporters.
In the Pashtun and Tajik direction significant assistance to Karzai was rendered by the Minister of Interior Hanif Atmar and Director of the Office of Homeland Security Amrulla Saleh. Pashtun Hanif Atmar represents the hard vector to implement the course of the Afghan president. Head of the Afghan intelligence Tajik Amrulla Saleh assumed the role of peacemaker, a supporter of compromise with political opponents not from a position of strength, but from a position of goodwill. According to analysts, such tactics of Karzai team combines elements of well-known method of "bad" and "good" police officer.
At the same time in the held opaque fight there were some failures. Thus, the stake of Karzai at the traditional leaders of the Shiite Hazara Mohammad Mohaqiq and Karim Khalili has not paid off in full. Karzai hoped that they would be able to attract to his side votes of Hazaras - that major ethnic and religious minority in Afghanistan. However, the voters, the Hazaras had preferred to vote for their candidate - Hazara Ramzan Bashardost. Nevertheless, as Mohaqiq, and Khalili, still believe that they helped Karzai and now make no secret of their ambitions to obtain ministerial posts. In this struggle they see as their main competitors the people from the team of Dr. Abdullah.
Providing crisis-free presidential election in Afghanistan was very important for the United States and NATO - the main actors in the fight against the Taliban and the guarantors of the country's security and reconstruction. Presidential elections in Afghanistan, according to the designs of their organizers, were to be checking the correctness of the new U.S. strategy to ensure security in the country, including steps to bring Pakistan to achieve stability in the region. In addition, they had to stimulate the activity of Afghans every citizen's awareness of responsibility for the processes and show them that their choices can lead to the power of new people who are able to find new solutions to the problem of reconstruction of Afghanistan.
But now the West has in Afghanistan the tendency not only to the elite division, but also along ethnic and religious lines. This threat forces to take urgent measures. It is worth noting the visit of B.Obama's Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke, during which he met with Atta Mohammad Noor and Hamid Karzai.
As a result of the meeting of R. Holbrooke with Noor American representative promised to increase the amount of U.S. aid for reconstruction of Balkh province. Subsequent negotiations of R. Holbrooke with Hamid Karzai, according to sources, were very sharp and not very warm. Most likely it was caused by the position of Karzai, who recently defended rather tough his political interests.
The activity of U.S. and NATO on the domestic political arena of Afghanistan is explained by the fact that they need more effective support from Kabul amid rising military tensions. Only during the past month the number of combat deaths of U.S. troops and NATO comprised 76 killed, including 45 Americans - the highest since the beginning of the Afghan campaign. Revitalization of the Taliban and the growing toll of NATO cause a new wave of calls and statements about the forthcoming within the next year or two the withdrawal of a number of American allies from the country. All this can not but alarm Washington, which itself is in trouble with the still unsurpassed financial and economic crisis.
Taking into account all these nuances, most analysts agree that the post-election situation in Afghanistan can develop in several scenarios.
The first option would be to compromise and form a coalition government. Meanwhile, it is too early to speak about on finding a lasting compromise between competing domestic political forces. Even if a compromise is found, it is only superficial, and the contradictions will smolder within the elite, which, of course, affect the effectiveness of future policies of Kabul.
The second option involves the implementation of the so-called "Tehran Project" (mass actions of civil disobedience) to which repeatedly hinted the representatives from the headquarters of A. Abdullah. Mass actions may continue until the coercion of Karzai to leave office. At the same time the U.S. military and NATO forces can occupy the position of non-interference in the conflict between protesters and Afghan security forces.
The third scenario is also not encouraging. In the absence of compromise and the inability to determine the head of state in the first round, there will be the second round, which, under any scenario, will not be recognized by the losing party. The crisis will take a protracted nature, and the power passes into the hands of Parliament, which, after a state of emergency, will form the interim government of Afghanistan, which will assume authority for an indefinite period.
It should be noted the probability of a fourth option, namely the return of power to the Taliban. This, of course, is unlikely. At least, until then, while in Afghanistan there is a presence of foreign military contingent.
In any case, no doubt about the fact that the unstable domestic political situation in Afghanistan, the conflicts at any level in this country, in the absence of real and legitimate mechanisms to resolve them, will objectively lead to the weakening of the Afghan state and national party system. The result is strengthening the position of non-system irreconcilable opposition, which naturally puts off the time at which Afghanistan will be able to achieve stability and sustainable development.

I.Uvraimov

Center for Political Studies