Almost all the countries involved in the resolution of the Afghan crisis, are gradually coming to a unanimous conclusion that a military solution to Afghanistan’s problems through further militarization has no prospects.
Today, many analytic circles note that the settlement of the situation in Afghanistan requires new approaches, in particular, strengthening human component of international operation as well as involvement of neighboring countries and regional organizations into the dialogue. At the same time a major precondition for solution of the Afghan problem is applying of the long-term purposeful and coordinated efforts by the entire world community.
The last large-scale activity in this direction was the London Conference on Afghanistan, held on January 28 this year. The event mainly focused on discussion of security in the context of handing over more responsibility to the Government of Afghanistan over the next five years, and reintegration of the moderate Taliban into peaceful life. During the conference there was promised a new funding for Afghanistan. One of the main topics of agenda was development of exit strategy of allied forces from Afghanistan. Delegates supported the idea of enhanced partnership between NATO forces and Afghanistan, as well as the principle under which Afghan forces will have to take a leading role in all stages of military operations.
During the conference the Afghan government was urged to begin operations by itself in insecure areas over the next three years, and within five years to ensure the physical protection in hot spots. According to experts, “the transition strategy” is supported both by international community and Afghans. According to the arguments of the latter, decisions on Afghanistan should not be taken outside the territory of Afghanistan: Afghans themselves must actively participate in country rebuilding. Against this background, some representatives of the Taliban declared about their willingness to enter into negotiations, but only on condition that foreign troops will leave the country.
It should be noted that the issue of troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan is a key aspect of the Afghan settlement. 2009 has become the bloodiest year for coalition forces – death toll has doubled in comparison with 2008. Increase in military forces does not give the desired result, as the Taliban and militants in Afghanistan are becoming increasingly active and constantly changing their tactics against coalition forces. The most dangerous thing for the coalition is the fact that there is increasing the number of those among the population, who have become more sympathetic to the Taliban.
During the conference, the President of Afghanistan Hamid Karzai drew attention that possible invitation of some Taliban leaders to such events might also contribute to their rejection of violence and joining government. According to H.Karzai, participation of the Taliban in the public policy will be a decisive condition for peace and national reconciliation. It is known, that Hamid Karzai is going to convene “grand council” (Loya Jirga) in the coming months and to invite some Taliban members to participate in it. In this regard, the United States fully supports H.Karzai. Moreover, the UN mission has also expressed its readiness to join negotiations with the Taliban, while playing a role of mediator.
Welcoming the plan for the peaceful entry of the Taliban into social and political life of Afghanistan, international donors announced establishing a fund for supporting peace and reintegration in Afghanistan. However, according to some experts, the idea of reintegration is questionable because there is a misconception that financial factor is decisive for the Taliban. Experts say that the main driving force of the Taliban is a powerful religious-ideological platform.
Another promising approach to resolving the situation in Afghanistan is involvement of neighboring countries. At the London conference there was stressed importance of the "regional solution" with a hope of a new contribution from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, India and Iran, China and Central Asia.
Central Asian countries have shown activity in this direction recently. In particular, Uzbekistan has applied great effort and made a number of initiatives to attract world attention to the Afghan crisis. Uzbekistan policy in the Afghan direction is based on the priority of political and diplomatic solution.
In his report at a joint meeting of the Legislative Chamber and Senate of Oliy Majlis on January 27 2010, the President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov stressed that neighboring countries are largely interested in ensuring peace and stability in Afghanistan. At the meeting, I.Karimov said that “it is impossible to solve of problems of Afghanistan without direct involvement of neighboring counties in the region, who has experienced a destructive effect of the Afghan crisis for the past 30 years.”
Today Uzbekistan is doing its best to secure peace and tranquility in Afghanistan. Thus, there are being implemented projects to further increase electricity supply (from 2010 electricity supply to Afghanistan has increased six-fold); Uzbek specialists began construction of Termez-Hairatan-Mazar-e-Sharif railroad, which is scheduled to conclude at the end of 2010.
Uzbekistan has been recently visited by the director of the Institute for Central Asia and Caucasus at the Johns Hopkins University, Professor F.Starr, who noted "importance of Uzbekistan's efforts on economic reconstruction of Afghanistan, including construction of the Hairatan-Mazar-e-Sharif railway route. According to him, "this project with the participation of Uzbek specialists has a historical significance". F.Starr emphasized the 6+3 initiative put forward by Islam Karimov. The U.S. expert believes that today this initiative forms the basis for real cooperation between all key interested sides in stabilizing situation in Afghanistan. Its importance stems from the fact, that it was developed through a deep understanding of the Afghan problem and generating ideas to promote stability within the region itself.
In the framework of regional subjects of the London Conference an important component in resolving the situation in Afghanistan is seen involvement of regional organizations. In this context a special role could be played by the SCO. Although the SCO countries do not have such a strong investment potential in contrast to the U.S. and EU, however, it is fully able to provide effective assistance in selected socio-economic and infrastructural projects. It should be noted that the strength of the SCO lies in the presence of relative commonality of the interests of the SCO member states with Afghanistan, based on a number of geographical, historical, economic and cultural factors.
In addition to the SCO it can be also emphasized the role of the OSCE. Following the London conference the U.S. Charge d'Affaires to the OSCE Carol Fuller said that "the U.S. sees new possibilities for the OSCE's activity in Afghanistan, where the OSCE has accumulated a unique experience. This includes, in particular, efforts to strengthen security and improve control over the northern border of Afghanistan, fight against drug trafficking, as well as providing assistance during elections. The U.S. also hopes that the Afghans will increasingly participate in the OSCE-sponsored meetings, seminars and conferences that will enable them to become better acquainted with OSCE norms and best practices in all three dimensions". According to some experts, the work of the OSCE could be even more effective if it would be more flexible to operate in the territory of Afghanistan, especially in the field of border security and training.
Thus, outcome of the London Conference on Afghanistan marked desire of the international community to adopt more effective efforts that meet current Afghan realities, to achieve peace and stability in Afghanistan. The Conference reaffirmed the need to gradually shift the emphasis from the military component to the socio-economic reconstruction of the country, taking into account transfer of the main burden of responsibility to the Afghan government and more active involvement of neighboring countries and regional organizations.
Jasurbek Eshniyazov
Expert of the Center Political Studies


