In the prevailing conditions within U.S. domestic politics, American experts in recent years have increasingly analyzed Washington's foreign policy problems standing in front of the Obama administration. As the most important, they indicate the continuation of military operations in Afghanistan and Iraq, the situation around the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea, Middle East problems and others. It is noted that there are “hard times” ahead of Obama, because of his strategy on foreign policy will be colliding with conservative attitude of the Republican Party, which, after the election to the House of Representatives in November 2010., has gained control of its main committees, which regulate the country's foreign policy.
According to experts, “the year of 2010 has successfully ended for the administration of Barack Obama: the Democrats have managed to convince most members of Congress on the necessity to ratify the US-Russian START-3”. However, in their opinion, 2011 will be tough for Barack Obama in terms of smooth implementation of foreign policy objectives, as well as maintaining an adequate response to global challenges of its national interests.
1.In particular, some analysts noted an increased financial and economic position of the “G20”, especially its most “avid” participant - the PRC. Further growth of the political influence of China, its economic and financial power, as well as political and military ambitions continue to cause concerns in the White House. In November 2010, the state commission on security assessment and economic relations between the U.S. and China prepared for the Congress a special report on the paces of development of the armed forces of the PRC. According to the authors of the document, "the U.S. has already lost military supremacy, and in case of a military conflict, China is able to destroy 5 from 6 of U.S. military bases in the region. An accelerated re-armament of the Chinese Army in the next few years may change the balance of power throughout Southeast Asia. Thus, it is noted that the emergence of the Internet pictures of a new prototype of the Chinese fifth-generation fighter jet J-20 on the eve of the visit of U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates in Beijing in January, is believed to be a deliberate “draining of information to demonstrate to the West, especially to Washington about the rapid pace of capacity building of the Peoples’ Liberation Army of China in the context of "Taiwan problem" and the question about the status of the South China Sea.
2. Nevertheless, Afghanistan remains as the main priority of U.S. foreign policy in 2011. Analysts believe that on the one hand this year is expected to be crucial in terms of early withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in the middle of 2011, but on the other hand, this period will be characterized by new challenges and problems for the White House. Particularly, according to experts, "attempts of the Obama administration to move towards the end of military operations in Afghanistan will create complications because of the positions of the major allies such as Britain and Germany.
An important relationship with its strategic partner such as Pakistan remains as another problem in Afghanistan. According to analysts, "relationship which is already unstable, may suffer some deterioration in the background of the publication of a recent report of the Centre for Monitoring of conflict". The report notes that as a result of the CIA special operations to annihilate the terrorists with drone attacks, over the past 5 years more than 2 thousand Pakistanis were killed, most of them - innocent civilians in the tribal areas. It is noteworthy that over 75% of the victims were killed in 2009-2010, during the presidency of Barack Obama.
3. American experts say that Washington's efforts on further settlement of the Arab-Israeli conflict through implementation of the plan, "Creation of two independent states”, encounters such tendencies as a frequent recognition of the independent State of Palestine by foreign countries, which is considered in the U.S. as “premature and inappropriate” at this stage. Thus, on January 7th, 2011, Chile officially announced the recognition of an independent Palestinian state. Earlier in 2010, the independence of Palestine was recognized by several other South American countries such as Brazil, Argentina, Bolivia and Ecuador. In these circumstances, the Palestinian Authority with the support from the Arab countries, forces on the removal of a “legitimate deficit” and insists on the intervention of UN Security Council, while calling for the adoption of a resolution condemning the Israeli settlement activities. Adoption of such a document, as noted, can “move the issue from the dead point” and create the necessary base for legitimization of the process of declaration of Palestinian independence.
4. Despite the introduction of the U.S. initiative through a new package of sanctions against Iran over its nuclear program, Tehran continues to "feel comfortable" using the support of a number of developing nations such as Venezuela, Cuba, China and others within UN. While acknowledging ineffectiveness of unilateral sanctions against Iran, Washington is trying to win over as many supporters, convincing them of the need to maintain pressure on Iran. Specifically, during the official visit of Hillary Clinton to Gulf countries on January, 2011, the U.S. Secretary of State while commenting on the findings of the head of Israeli intelligence "Mossad" M. Dagan that “Iran cannot build a nuclear bomb by 2015” she noted that “such forecasts should not distract the international community from further efforts of not allowing Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon”.
As the failure of arguments of "the Iranian vector" in the foreign policy strategy of the Obama administration, the experts refer as “impudent demarche” by Tehran against Washington – on January 15-16, Iran demonstratively invited U.S. officials to visit its nuclear facilities, while inviting representatives of several other states, including Russia and China. According to experts, “Tehran's initiative has put Moscow in a difficult situation, which did not risk endangering restart relations with Washington while trying to maintain a special relationship with Tehran that was undermined in the last months by its notable rapprochement with the U.S. and the West on Iranian question”.
American experts generally suggest that “during the next two years, the Obama administration will be facing deadlocks in implementation of specific foreign policy initiatives, in which the political maneuvering and creation of obstruction can lead to inaction”. At the same time, Democrats will be forced to make some concessions in favor of Republicans, otherwise Obama for his obstructionist foreign policy can “pay” with his presidency in 2012. “In addition, it seems that issues of foreign policy of the current White House administration would get complicated within conditions of the rapidly changing world that will not be in favor of U.S.
Ashraf Khodjaev, Ph.D.
Associate Expert of the Center for Political Studies
