Two well-known agencies - Moody's and Standard & Poor's - have informed about the possibility of reducing the rate of Greece, questioning the opportunities of Athens to reduce large fiscal deficit.
According to official figures, last year the country had a budget deficit of 12,7% of GDP and debt of € 300 billion. However, only in 2009 Athens borrowed about 80 billion euros, or 30% of GDP. Government faced the challenge of servicing the excessive accumulation of public debt. In March - April, it will have to pay about € 20 billion. Altogether, this year, Greece will have to send to debt servicing about 11% of GDP. Country poised on the brink of default.
The severity of the current situation is that the problems in the financial sector of Greece on a single financial chain may spread to other European Union countries. 20 of the 27 EU member states have budget deficits above 3% of GDP, whereas a year ago, such figures have been unthinkable for the majority of EU member states. Now it is more the norm. According to forecasts, this year the state budget deficit in the EU average will reach 7,5% of GDP.
Given that the EU as an economic unit is one of three centers of world economy, the problems of Greece at least in the short term can play a destabilizing role in efforts to “streamline the situation” in the global economy against the backdrop of the global crisis.
In this regard, on February 11, EU leaders took the unprecedented decision to provide assistance to Greece. Financial assistance will be provided by France and Germany. Given that the situation in Greece has negative effects on the entire economic situation in the EU, on February 16, Brussels demanded an immediate explanation from Greece, which is accused of concealing the true size of budget deficits and public debt at the expense of complex financial contracts with leading U.S. investment banks.
Such actions of Athens could seriously undermine the credibility of the country, which would lead to problems with providing it the necessary support from the EU. Confirmation of the possible slip of the matter is the statement of Deputy Prime Minister of Greece T.Pangalos.
According to him, the lack of a clear position of EU leaders exacerbates the financial crisis in Greece, as the situation does not stabilize the market and allay fears of investors about the possibility of default of the country. In addition, on 20 February in Moscow, economics minister of Germany R. Bryuderle said that in a difficult economic situation, Greece should solve its problems independently.
The Greek government believes that EU must provide a specific program of assistance to the country in the event such assistance is really needed. Greece emphasized that at present it does not need direct assistance from the EU, but investors should be confident that Europe has a detailed plan for aid to Athens, which if necessary will be put into effect. Greece would like to see European countries have developed a mechanism for emergency assistance (if necessary) euro-zone countries, who are unable to pay the bills.
However, according to experts, the current realities of the crisis in Greece could be considered in several possible scenarios for the participation of European governments in resolving the current crisis in this country. For example, the Treasury of the euro area could, if necessary, to give Greece a bridge-financing from cash reserves, which they maintain for short-term inter-governmental loans. EU as whole or individual countries (such as France or Germany) on behalf of the bloc could directly provide an emergency loan for Greece. Of the more marginal production scenarios are said common obligations of eurozone, the IMF intervention and restrictions "on top" of trade credit default swaps (CDS) on sovereign debt.
In general it may be noted that the economic situation in Greece has destabilizing signals for the entire eurozone. This is primarily due to the high level of integration and the interplay of economic relations between the EU, which is especially evident in the financial sector. It is no accident that it is through this channel "crisis viruses" can quickly move beyond the territory of Greece, surprise, first of all, the EU countries with fragile financial system, or "suspicious credit history." This explains why, despite domestic economic issues against the backdrop of global crisis, the desire of "pillars" of the EU to somehow influence the situation in Greece and to localize the crisis. One can say that the situation in Greece should be a test for the EU and all he results of economic integration which had been achieved in the European region in recent decades.

Nodir Jumaniyazov, Ph.D.
Center for Political Studies