In fact, over recent years the province has turn into the basing zone of the Taliban major units, as well as the center of their funding through an extensive plantation of opium poppies. It is widely known that Helmand has long been a world leader in production of opium and heroin.

The transformation by the Taliban of the part of the province counties into controlled territory gave them the opportunity to increase activity in the western and northern directions. The results of their actions are seen in increasing the number of different acts of sabotage in the west and north of the country, including Kabul, and a sharp increase in casualties among NATO troops, Afghan police and army.

All this was cause for intense debate, especially in American and European press about the issues of rising risks to NATO's mission in Afghanistan and the gradual entry of the country into the second period of destabilization since the overthrow of the Najibullah. Acute problems for NATO coincided with the continuing fall in the popularity of the Afghan mission of NATO among the population of Europe and the United States, as well as the global financial and economic crisis, which have forced the Western countries more sensitive to the their costs.

In such circumstances, the question of the radical change of situation in Afghanistan came to the fore on the agenda of the White House, especially because President Barack Obama following his pre-election promises said the early withdrawal of U.S. troops from that country since mid-2011. All these logically follows that by that time the negative processes in the field of security in Afghanistan must be, if not completely eliminated, but at least locked in a number of strategically important areas. Therefore, operation “Moshtarak” in Helmand province looks are not random.

The concentration of large forces of NATO and the Afghan army, numbering up to 15,000 troops and the direction of its occurrence clearly show that the main goal is to eliminate strongholds of the Taliban in Afghanistan, which should positively affect the overall stabilization of the country. The success of the operation opens up several opportunities for NATO and Kabul to enhance their capacity to meet the objectives of the strategic tasks plan in Afghanistan.

First of all, NATO and Afghan authorities in case of success will be able to intercept tactical initiative from the Taliban. It's no secret that in the past at least two years it lay in the hands of the Taliban – an international coalition often simply responded to the tactical moves of the Taliban, which began to develop activities in the provinces of Herat, Badghis, Ghor, in the Kunduz and Kabul – areas where Taliban positions have traditionally been very weak.

From the standpoint of the interests of NATO and Kabul, a likely defeat of the Taliban in Helmand should also seriously reduce their ability to prepare for the conditions of Afghanistan's traditional spring-summer season of hostilities.

It is expected that intercept tactical initiatives against a background of military successes will create conditions for a negotiating process with the part of the Taliban, which took no global expansionist views, but whose interests extend only to the Afghan political field. In this regard, illustrative look synchronized with the operation "Moshtarak" pinpoint intelligence operations of the United States and Pakistan to eliminate the most intransigent leaders of the Taliban are categorically opposed to any negotiations with the government of Hamid Karzai before the complete withdrawal of western troops.

So, on the threshold of the operation Pakistani Taliban leader Hakimulla Mehsud was killed during attack using unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and Mullah Abdul Ghani known as Mullah Baradar was captured on the territory of Pakistan. According to available information, he is the deputy spiritual leader Mullah Omar, one of the leaders of the Quetta Shura. Recently he was appointed informal head of the Taliban government in Afghanistan. U.S. intelligence hoped that the arrest of Mullah Baradar will lead to Mullah Omar. In addition, during operation “Moshtarak” was eliminated Mullah Sirazhiddin which according to Afghan was responsible for relations with foreign fighters.

It has been suggested that the elimination of “irreconcilable” will start the process of integration of Pashtun-Taliban into government structures and their transition to civilian life. It is for this purpose will be used The Fund for Peace and Reintegration Support which was established in January during the London Conference on Afghanistan. While a number of sponsors were promised to provide $ 140 million (of planned $ 1 billion) for the Fund.

In the meantime, it should be stressed once again that the achievement of these goals will be possible only after the decisive defeat of the Taliban in Helmand. At present there are contradictory information arrives from there. According to some data, the Afghan army backed by NATO troops freed the county town Marge and does not meet with strong resistance. But according to other, mostly Taliban, sources the province have become the place of numerous clashes between Taliban militants and the international coalition.

Apparently, the situation will be clarified in the near future and it indicator will be the rise or decline in subversive activities, launching reconstruction processes in Helmand, the return of refugees in war zones, as well as initiating talks between Kabul and the Taliban.

Rustam Makhmudov
Expert of the CPS