Recent developments in Tunisia and Egypt through expanded mass-protests have highlighted the Middle Eastern agenda in several key states of the region. It gradually affected such states as Yemen, shattered the situation in Algeria, significantly influenced a social atmosphere in Jordan and strengthened the support of newly arrived government in Lebanon. At this stage, it is interesting to analyze how the situation will evolve in the Middle East in the background of political crisis in such a strategically important state as Egypt.
Since the inception of protests in Egypt, the world has witnessed bloody clashes between anti-government and pro-government supporters leaving over 300 people dead in the streets of Cairo and Alexandria. Thereby, the world leaders have expressed their concerns on the situation, but reacted miscellaneously. In the early days of protests, most of the leaders of the European establishment, including Russian foreign ministry called for an end of the violence and hoped for normalization of the situation in the country. Nonetheless, while the protest was heating up and the situation was worsening in the streets of Cairo, a chief EU representative on Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Catherine Ashton have urged the Egyptian authorities to immediately take the necessary measures to ensure that the law enforcement authorities protect the demonstrators and their right to assembly freely. She also supported a formation of transition government, genuine democratic reform, paving the way for free and fair elections. Besides, President of the United Stated Barak Obama supported a well-ordered and authentic transition of Egypt to democracy while summoning the Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to step away from his position. On the other hand, the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu took a completely opposite stand while stating that the regime change in Egypt will put Israel’s security in danger.
On the 16th day of a protest, the situation in Cairo have exacerbated to the degree that Egypt’s military has endorsed a partial transfer of power from President Hosni Mubarak to Vice President Omar Suleiman whom he appointed in the first week of protest. 75 years old Omar Suleiman who has started his military career in 1954 was for many years heading an Egyptian intelligence service. At the time of a current crisis, he has played a crucial role in support of Mubarak while fulfilling a role of a mediator between the government, protesters and the opposition. This gave Suleiman much credit to acquire a part of Mubarak’s responsibilities before the September elections. At the same time, protesters did not wish to see neither Mubarak nor Suleiman in power. Most of the protesters and opposition leaders, including a distinguished anti-Mubarak campaigner Mohammed ElBaradei (an ex-chief of international atomic energy agency under UN), regarded Mubarak and Suleiman as two sides of the same coin.
On the 17th day of a protest there were several leaks from the government representatives that Mubarak was to address the nation and publicly announce his retirement after which “the crown of Egyptian pharaoh” would be given to his new successor Suleiman. But once this long waiting moment has arrived, Mubarak swore with God that he would not resign under any circumstances and this has brought more infuriation to Egyptian people who directly headed towards presidential palace. However, the 18th day became a symbolic date in the history of Egypt when Hosni Mubarak eventually resigned and transformed the power to the Supreme Council of the armed forces of Egypt, which is headed by Defense Minister Mohamed Hussein Tantawi. Nevertheless, protesters that included workers, bank employees, journalists and even police officers were still out on the streets of Cairo and other Egyptian cities demanding higher wages and better working conditions. The Army said that it will take necessary measures to protect the country and support the legitimate demands of people.
Currently, under the decision of the Supreme Military Council of Egypt, a parliament in Egypt is dissolved and the activities of the Constitutional Court are suspended. The country has declared a transitional period which will last for either six months or until the presidential election. However, Israeli administration has expressed its concerns and suggested to Egyptian leadership not to rush with elections. In its turn, the Defense Minister of Israel Ehud Barack stated that if the elections will be held within 90 days, this will bring the ‘Muslim Brotherhood’ which is the only political force in Egypt aimed at struggle for power. Hitherto, according to Barack, the arrival of the ‘Muslim Brotherhood’ to power would be catastrophic for the whole region and it is necessary to make every effort to avoid it.
A general volatility in the North Africa and Middle East became a huge debate in the geopolitics and it is of principal concern of Israel which has been in conflict with Palestine and other regional states as Syria and Lebanon for decades. Today as before, Israel is a closest ally of the United States which provides an economic and military support to Israel, while the second important country for US in the region (which is the 2nd biggest aid receiver from USA) is Egypt. Cairo is also a closest ally of Israel in the region and thus far, Egypt was a leading mediating body in Palestine-Israel negations while remaining as the only state bordering with Gaza strip. Hence, security and stability of Egypt is in prime interest of Israel and the US, due to several vital for Israel factors.
First and above all, this has much to do with an arrival of an Islamist party “Muslim Brotherhood” in Egypt which may extent a general instability in such a regional state as Jordan that Israel shares its borders with and where majority of Palestinian refugees are settled. Subsequently, in case of the theoretical change of the government in Jordan, its main opposition party the Jordanian ‘Muslim Brotherhood’ may come to power, while it can put the future of Israel into jeopardy. Meanwhile, there is also a Lebanese factor which is not less critical to Israel’s security, while a vast majority of a new government of Lebanon consists of representatives of Hisballah which was a long rival of Israel in the region. At these days, Hisballah’s stronghold has grown even stronger thanks to its military and political capacity and Israel undoubtedly is much concerned about it.
At this moment, it is rather difficult to find out who will take over the power in Egypt and who will become a regional player in such a key country of the Middle East. It is yet hard to decide whether it will be the ElBaradei-Brotherhood coalition or some other configuration. Although, much will depend on how the Egyptian military will run things until a stable situation is achieved and how a general situation will evolve in a larger Middle East in the coming months.
R. Ahmedov
CPS Expert
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