Given that globalization has already taken place; many key processes in the global political and economic system have a high level of interconnectedness and interdependence. A deep integration between the different regions and countries has also become the consequence of globalization. Central Asia and its energy sector, of course, does not constitute an exception - significant increase proven reserves of oil and natural gas over the past two decades, the increase in hydrocarbon exports and the commissioning of new pipelines has made the region an integral part of the global energy, economic and political processes.

The events of recent years clearly demonstrate the impact of political and economic processes in the Middle East, European, American and Asian economies make on oil and gas sector of Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. With high confidence, one can assume that in case of further growth of energy and export potential of Central Asia, the region will become increasingly sensitive to the various global political and economic trends.

An analysis of current situation in the world economy and geopolitics indicate that these trends are already quite a few, and it can directly influence the development prospects of global and Central Asian energy.

Currently, a direct impact on the global oil and gas market is made by the instability in the leading oil and gas regions such as the Middle East and North Africa. The Civil War in Libya led to the suspension of oil production and exports from this country to EU markets. Libya has Africa’s largest oil reserves, estimated at 46.5 billion barrels. It also extracts 1.65 million barrels per day, of which 1.5 million are exported mainly to the European Union.Naturally, the drift of high-quality light crude oil could not bypass the growth on world prices, which reached in April $ 126 per barrel of the oil trademark Brent.

According to the estimates of some experts, today the Middle East and North Africa have entered into a kind of quiet period, while waiting for the settlement of events in Libya. One shall not exclude that armed resistance in Libya may serve as a catalyst for the second wave of instability in the region according to “Libyan scenario”. Potential country that is at risk is Algeria, which is the third largest in oil and second largest natural gas reserves in the country of Africa.

Likewise, Egypt is in the zone of risk, where, it seems, the political crisis is not over after the departure of President Mubarak, as it potentially threatens the energy transit through the Suez Canal through which in the period from January to November 2010, 16.500 vessels have crossed. 20% of them were oil tankers (1.8 million barrels per day in 2009.) and 5% were tankers with the liquefied natural gas. In addition, a transit pipeline “Suez-Mediterranean Sea” with a capacity of 2.3 million barrels a day is passing through Egypt.

Prospects of Yemen remain uncertain. Confrontation with the opposition to President Abdullah Saleh is underway. Many analysts think that Yemen is the next possible aim of U.S to fight with al Qaeda. The importance of Yemen lies in the fact that it has an affect on the shipping to the Bab al-Mandeb strait, through which 3-4 million barrels of oil per day transits every year.

In the foreseeable future, the pressure on the global oil market will provide unfinished conflict between Iran and the West, as well as the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, which should be completed by 2014.

The critical importance of the event in the Middle East for the global market of oil and gas is not only that they may affect the volume of supply of hydrocarbons, but also that they occur in parallel with the ongoing process of overcoming the consequences of the global financial crisis.

As we know, this crisis started in August 2008 and had a significant impact primarily to the U.S. economy and the European Union - the largest consumers of energy. Furthermore, the chain effect of the crisis has spread to suppliers of oil and gas to these markets, as well as exporters of finished products. Suppliers from Central Asia and CIS directly felt the impact of the crisis through a sharp drop in prices for oil and gas - from 147 to 30 dollars per barrel and reduced demand in the EU market.

At these days, the global economy is starting to recover, but there are a number of risks that could slow down the pace of recovery.

First of all, there are high oil prices. Although earlier in April, the International Energy Agency has predicted the growth in global oil consumption in 2011 to 1.3 million barrels per day compared with last year. But in May, it had to reduce the forecast by 200 thousand barrels to 89.2 million barrels. The main reason - high commodity prices could negatively affect the demand. It is noteworthy that in January, the IMF forecast estimated the growth in world oil prices in 2011 at 13.4%.

Despite the high oil prices, potentials risks are in a continuing uncertainty in the economic revival of USA. The United States is the world’s largest economy and a leading energy consumer and importer. While economic growth in this country is projected in the range of 2-4% per year, according to some estimates it is reduced to zero by inflation. Besides, the government of Barack Obama cannot solve the problem with the growth of public debt - 14.3 trillion dollars, or almost 100% of GDP budget deficit, which in 2011 reached a record of 1.5 trillion dollars.

All this affects the credibility of the U.S. economy and herein, a prediction of an authoritative international rating agency «Standard & Poor's» can been called as symbolic, in which the long-term rating of the U.S. for the first time in 70 years downgraded from “stable” to “negative”.

In the near future difficulties with the economic recovery of the European Union, due to problems in the peripheral euro-zone economies are also possible.

Against this backdrop, the expectations of many exporters of oil and gas associated with the Asian market and particularly with China, which is called as the locomotive of global growth. The same IMF recently published a forecast, which it indicates that by 2016, China’s economy could get around the U.S by the size of GDP. China’s GDP will grow to 19 trillion dollars from 11.2 trillion in 2011, and the United States to 18.8 billion from 15.2 trillion in 2011.

Meanwhile, the chances of China in becoming a key energy market in the world can substantially increase in case of growing stability of its economy through the development of domestic consumption. According to the data from 2009, the level of domestic consumption in China was 35% of GDP, while in the U.S. - about 80%, and in other developed countries - 60% in an average. After the crisis, Beijing began to make vigorous efforts in this direction, as it demonstrates good results.

Thus, we can conclude that today, global oil and gas market is facing both a number of acute challenges and great growth opportunities. It all depends on what direction the future the global geopolitical and economic processes will flow. As for Central Asia, the good prospects are opening up in the Chinese energy market, access to which it received thanks to the construction of “Atasu - Alashankou” and pipeline “Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan-China”.