The event has brought together senior specialists and high level experts from several local and international institutions, diplomatic corps, governmental and non-governmental organizations. Therein, experts from Britain, China, Iran, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Russia, Singapore, Spain, Turkey, USA, Uzbekistan, representatives of international organizations and others who specialize on Afghanistan, expressed their own views on solving the Afghan dilemma. This was all discussed in the framework of a further deterioration of military-political situation in Afghanistan, unsettled questions of socio-economic development of the country as well as increasing volume of drug production which continue to pose a serious threat to regional and international security.

Subsequently, the roundtable discussed the current state of military-political, socio-economic, narcotic and demographic situation in Afghanistan and its impact on the security of neighboring countries as well as prospects for intra-Afghan dialogue. Hitherto, a special consideration was given to the role of neighboring countries, regional and international organizations in stabilization and recovery processes in Afghanistan. This was first of all discussed in the light of the “6+3” initiative on the settlement of the Afghan problem which is introduced by the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov.

The session was incepted with the welcome speech of the Director of the Center for Political Studies, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to the Kingdom of Spain, Permanent Representative of Uzbekistan to the United Nation’s Office and other organizations in Geneva, Professor Gulnara Karimova, who touched in her presentation, a number of vital issues and introduced several proposals that could essentially contribute in stabilization of the situation in Afghanistan. In her view, Barak Obama’s plan of withdrawal of U.S and coalition troops from Afghanistan in June 2011, uncertainty in the current military strategy of NATO as well as the recent withdrawal of Dutch military contingent puts the regional and global security into jeopardy. Herewith, it is important to note that Ambassador’s view correlates with visions of several key leaders of the American establishment such as the U.S. commander in Afghanistan General David Petraues, Republican Senator from Arizona John McCain and independent Senator from Connecticut Joseph Lieberman, as well as German Defence Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg and Secretary General of NATO, Anders Fogh Rasmussen who have repeatedly claimed that hasty withdrawal could lead to a new wave of terrorist threats from Al Qaeda worldwide.

According to Professor Karimova, the situation in Afghanistan is very unstable, as it can be explicated by Taliban factor which grows strong and spreads its influence in various parts of the country. Another factor is economic paralysis and acute poverty that hinders Afghanistan’s development and cause the anti-foreign sentiments in the country. As a result, the Ambassador summons to have a balance approach towards the Afghan issue and find a suitable strategy to answer to numerous fundamental questions that exists in Afghanistan. In her opinion, the dialogue with its neighboring countries based on political and economic collaboration, as well as integration of Afghanistan into the regional market can provide with substantial contribution to stop the war and establish stability in the country.

These and a range of other suggestions have been discussed by Ambassador in the light of “6+3” initiative, which was proposed by the President of Uzbekistan in 2008. Hereto, it is important to remind that the “6+3” initiative suggests that “the problems of Afghanistan should be resolved by the Afghans themselves with the assistance of those countries that are interested in ending the war and establishing a stable future for Afghanistan. This includes U.S., NATO, Russia that have a concrete concern towards the peacekeeping mission, as well as those neighboring with Afghanistan.

As President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov suggested, “the main purpose of the contact group “6+3” is to offer the program to the warring parties to end hostilities in Afghanistan, to find compromises on major key issues and controversies that divide the country, to ensure security and provide the necessary guarantees”. In this case, President states that the priority in the program should be given to negotiations with all the major fighting forces, economic assistance, the implementation of social, infrastructural and humanitarian projects, solving problems of employment, the most acute problems of poverty and lawlessness.

In his report at the roundtable, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Uzbekistan Vladimir Norov said that the ongoing for 30 years war in Afghanistan destroyed both economic and social infrastructure and led into the impoverishment of the population. In his opinion, a continuation of war aggravates the lives of Afghan people and the growing radicalization of the situation, enhanced activities of terrorist insurgents despite the enormous efforts and measures undertaken by the international community and coalition peace-keeping forces in this country unfortunately, tend to worsen.

Foreign Minister comprehends that driven by the world community, “Afghan strategy, unfortunately, does not bring the expected results. One of particular concerns is the revitalization of the destructive forces in northern Afghanistan, particularly in Balkh, Kunduz and other provinces, which until recently were considered to be one of the safer terrains in the country.  It is also associated with a significant change of Talibans’ tactics to combat coalition forces”. In this case, the use of "human bombs" and suicide bombers in recent years become an integral part of such tactics.

Following the UN statistics, only in the first half of 2010, approximately 1200 Afghans became victims of armed conflict and about 2000 were injured, which is 30% more compared with 2009. At the same time, there are significant losses among the contingent of the international coalition that at the beginning of October 2010 exceeded 2100 people. As Foreign Minister conceives, this may obviously explain the increase in the number of official statements of several countries with regards to instantaneous withdrawal of their troops from Afghanistan.

The initiative of the President Karimov has been supported by the majority of experts at the roundtable.

Dr. Aftab Kazi from the Central Asia Caucasus Institute of John Hopkins University, approves “6+3” initiative which advocates the establishment of peace by non-military means while saying that it is viable and it is high time for its implementation. He reckons that the break-up of Afghanistan will be a geopolitical problem. Similarly, Deputy Director General of the Center for Studies of Modern Iran Dr. Andranik Derinikyan believes that “6+3” initiative is a suitable strategy to achieve tangible results in Afghanistan and urges that it is important to have a profound and careful approach towards Afghanistan. Equally, Professor Tetsuji Tanaka from the Central Asia Caucasus Institute in Japan supports the idea of “6+3” and confirms Japan’s readiness to support it. 

The Head of the Foreign Policy Department of Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of Kazakhstan Dr. Bulat Auelbaev who supports the idea of “6+3”, states that a withdrawal of troops gives rise to concerns and for Central Asian countries this question is imperative. In his opinion, Shanghai Organization of Cooperation and CSTO shall expand into Afghanistan. He deems that it is impossible to solve military-political situation in the country without solving socio-economic ones. Moreover, Dr. Auelbaev gives high credits to the role of Turkey and OSCE in the conflict settlement in Afghanistan.

At the same time, Professor of the Department of world culture and religions of the Kyrgyz-Russian Slavic University Zamira Karabaeva insists on the reasonable decision of extraction of troops. She supports the “6+3” initiative and deems that it is a peaceful and effective mechanism while its conception bears long-term character.

Dr. Marta Olcott who is a Senior Associate of Russia and Eurasia Program in the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace states that Afghanistan is being discussed since 1973 and all 5 states of Central Asia should play strategic role for its resolution. Otherwise, in her opinion, the next stage would be a lot worse.

During the discussion, plenty of thoughts have been shared with regards to socio-economic integration of Afghanistan. Therein, Dr. Shirin Akiner who is a Lecturer of Central/Inner Asian Studies at the School of Oriental and African Studies in the University of London asked participants to make clear distinction between integration and cooperation. In her opinion, aid never comes free whereas it has interest rates and external debts of Afghanistan are rapidly growing. She calls for a concrete programme of development and to say we need this much for Afghanistan is not constructive in her opinion. “We must know how much “We” need to solve an Afghan issue”. She presumes that without integral approach and engagement of India it is impossible to solve the problem of Afghanistan.


Dr. Akiner’s position is somewhat similar with Dr. Nikolai Zlobin who is a Senior Fellow and Director of Russian and Asian Programs at the World Security Institute (WSI), in Washington. Dr. Zlobin assumes that economic investment is undoubtedly central, but investment of American companies would not make Afghans sovereign. He believes that everybody comes to Afghanistan with its agenda and there is no state in the world which comes to Afghanistan for the wellbeing of Afghans. He is certain that without building a national economy it is impossible to establish a state of Afghanistan.

Director of the Center for Regional and Strategic Studies Dr. Simbal Khan questions regional strategy and actors in the Afghan framework. She outlines that the collaboration between UN and NATO can contribute significantly in bringing stability in Afghanistan. She finds the provision of development rather than aid as the most sufficient.

Dr. Nicolas De Pedro from CIDOB Foundation makes his own prognosis on the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. Dr. De Pedro gives his assessment on the departure of foreign troops from Afghanistan, which may drastically affect the Central Asia countries, particularly Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. In his opinion, the situation in Kyrgyzstan has been aggravated due to the situation in Afghanistan, explained by the factor of Islamisation and narcotics affair.

Dr. Bahram Amirahmadian, Professor at the University of Tehran focuses on the deteriorated narcotics factor and responsibilities of warlords in the chaos of Afghanistan. With regards to Dr. Amirahmadian, money that is delivered to Afghanistan is not handled properly and revenues are not supplied to proper sources. He finds the role of India and China in the Afghan settlement as crucial because they are geographically close and have enough resources. He says that the main purpose of underdevelopment in Afghanistan is communication infrastructure. Thus, Karzai should ask international community to promote economic reforms and to solve unemployment. Dr. Amirahmadian is convinced that investment to Afghanistan will solve many issues and the situation will come to a change.

Likewise, Chairman of the Turkish Asian Center for Strategic Studies (TASAM) Dr. Süleyman Şensoy accentuates on the relevant position of Turkey in establishing peace in Afghanistan. He assures that similar to Central Asian countries, Turkey shares cultural and geographic closeness with Afghanistan. Therefore, Turkey can be a good mediator between East and the West and it can put a significant effort in the development of its infrastructure including the development of transportation.

Dr. Omar Nessar, Director of the Center for Modern Afghanistan Studies, views Afghanistan as a global project. He claims that U.S. and NATO are the only recourses for provision of the security in the Central Asia. However, this brings out doubt and uncertainty with the declared decision of withdrawal of troops.

Dr. Nessar highlights the weaknesses of support given by U.S. and NATO on the peace settlement in Afghanistan. In his view, the lack of heavy armaments, military helicopters and tanks that West refuses to provide becomes the reason for weak military structure of Afghanistan. Nowadays, Afghan military looks more like a police which is not able to protect the country from the acts of brutality.


As for the topic of economic aid, Dr. Nessar asserts that plenty of money has been spent on construction of schools, roads, railways, but not on a single infrastructure that could provide with jobs a significant part of the population. In his opinion, economic restoration of Afghanistan is tremendously important.

As it was evidenced, each of the eloquent sessions was followed by discussion where every expert had a chance to pose a question and conduct a short debate. Thereat, Uzbekistan’s position was clear, as it was expressed by several high level Uzbek experts. Dr. Alisher Shaikhov, Chairman of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Republic of Uzbekistan noted that for the money spent to military presence of U.S. and NATO troops to Afghanistan, 10 economies could have been built. In his opinion, corruption structures in the government of Afghanistan as well as an immense influence of organized crime groups and warlords create an acrid hurdle in the revival of the country. Nowadays, these forces are in charge of narcotic and arm trade and the aid that is delivered by international community is on their hands as well.

Dr. Ravshan Mamatov from the Council of the National Security of the Republic of Uzbekistan is ascertain that Tashkent never pursued venal interests, but is continuously interested in peace and stabilization in Afghanistan. Dr. Mamatov regards the Contact Group “6+3” as critical in this project because of ethnic, cultural, mental and spiritual closeness of Uzbekistan and other Central Asian states with Afghanistan. Thus, Uzbekistan and Central Asian countries can make crucial contribution in achieving an ultimate peace which will prevail in the land of Afghan people.

Following the end of the roundtable, Deputy Director of the Center for Political Studies Dr. Rustam Makhmudov brought to the forefront the question of what should be done next? In his view, Afghanistan is an issue that goes beyond its borders. The movement of militants across Afghanistan and their financing by covert parties raises several questions. As Makhmudov states, “when Helmend operation was put into force, it was revealed that the militant activities in the northern Afghanistan were increased. Having mentioned this, he drew attention to the question on how in such a short time militants were able to cross the Hindukush Mountain and underlined that this must be studied. In the view of Deputy Director, to sit and discuss the issue is not enough. He believes that “6+3” is a first step to start acting for change and it is a platform where one can speak out its viewpoints.

R. Ahmedov

CPS Expert